Что стоит за огромным оптимизмом космических полетов SpaceX у энтузиастов космонавтики?

[svmich]

(4 из 4)

The afterglow, however, soon faded. SpaceX, like Musk's other company, Tesla, was facing a major cash shortage. SpaceX had the Falcon 9 efforts to support and had also greenlighted the construction of the Dragon capsule, which would take supplies and, one day, humans, to the International Space Station. Historically, either project would have cost more than $1 billion to complete, but SpaceX would have to find a way to build both machines simultaneously for a fraction of the cost. The company had dramatically increased the rate at which it hired employees and moved into a much larger headquarters. SpaceX had a commercial flight booked to carry a satellite into orbit for the Malaysian government, but that launch and the payment for it would not arrive until the middle of 2009. In the meantime, SpaceX simply struggled to make its payroll. Just when it figured out how to fly a rocket, SpaceX was going broke.

As bad as they were, the financial problems did not compare to the collapse of Musk's personal life. Not long after moving to Los Angeles, Musk had lost his 10-week-old son, Nevada Alexander, to sudden infant death syndrome. "I'm not sure why I'd want to talk about extremely sad events," Musk told me. "It does no good for the future. If you've got other kids and obligations, then wallowing in sadness does no good for anyone around you. I'm not sure what should be done in such situations." Musk went on to have five more sons with Justine—twins and triplets—but their relationship broke apart in 2008, and Musk filed for divorce. Justine soon began documenting the divorce on a blog, and the press was all too happy to merge the personal details into stories of Musk's financial woes.

Reporters seemed to take a special pleasure in attacking Tesla. The electric car maker had suffered through numerous product delays, management changes, and cost overruns. After five years and tens of millions of dollars, there was still no Tesla available to buy. A website called the Truth About Cars began a "Tesla Death Watch" in May 2008 and followed up with dozens of entries throughout the year. The blog captured Tesla's engineering issues and Musk's feud with Tesla co-founder Martin Eberhard, who'd been forced out of the company.

"I was just getting pistol-whipped," Musk said. "There was a lot of schadenfreude at the time, and it was bad on so many levels. Justine was torturing me in the press. ... It hurt really bad. You have these huge doubts that your life is not working, your car is not working, you're going through a divorce and all of those things. I felt like a pile of s---. I didn't think we would overcome it. I thought things were probably f---ing doomed."

When Musk looked at the numbers, it looked like only one company would survive. "I could either pick SpaceX or Tesla or split the money I had left between them," Musk said. "That was a tough decision. If I split the money, maybe both of them would die. If I gave the money to just one company, the probability of it surviving was greater, but then it would mean certain death for the other company. I debated that over and over." In the meantime, the economy was worsening, and spacecraft and sports cars seemed out of place in a time of near-record unemployment.



Riley and Musk at the premiere of St. Trinian's 2 in London in 2009.
Photographer: UPPA/Zuma Press

The brightest light in Musk's life at the time was Talulah Riley, a 22-year-old British actress he had started dating and would later marry. She viewed Musk's life as Shakespearean tragedy.

Sometimes Musk would open up to her, and other times he retreated into himself. Riley spied on Musk while he read e-mail and watched him grimace as bad news poured in. "You'd witness him having these conversations in his head," she said. "It's really hard to watch someone you love struggle like that." Because of the long hours that he worked and his eating habits, bags formed under his eyes. "He looked like death itself," Riley said. "I remember thinking this guy would have a heart attack and die. He seemed like a man on the brink."

Burning through about $4 million a month, Tesla needed to close another major round of funding to get through 2008 and stay alive. Musk had to lean on friends just to make payroll fr om week to week as he negotiated with investors. He sent impassioned pleas to anyone he could think of who might be able to spare some money. Bill Lee, a wealthy friend, invested $2 million in Tesla, and Sergey Brin, co-founder of Google, invested $500,000. Kimbal had lost most of his money during the recession but sold what investments he had left and put it into Tesla as well. The company had set the prepayments that customers made for the Roadsters aside, but Musk now needed to use that money to keep the company going. Soon those funds were gone, too. These maneuvers worried Kimbal. "I'm sure Elon would have found a way to make things right, but he definitely took risks," he said.

In December 2008, Musk heard a rumor that NASA was on the verge of awarding a contract to resupply the space station. SpaceX's fourth launch had put it in a position to receive some of this money, which was said to be in excess of $1 billion. Musk reached out through back channels in Washington and found out that SpaceX might even be a front-runner for the deal.

As for Tesla, Musk made a last-ditch effort to raise all the personal funds he could. He took out a loan fr om SpaceX, which NASA approved—Musk did not want to mess up his chance for a contract—and earmarked the money for Tesla. He went to the secondary markets to try to sell some of his shares in SolarCity, a solar panel installer where he served as chairman. He lucked into about $15 million that came through when Dell acquired a data center software startup called Everdream, founded by Musk's cousins, in which he had invested.



Musk finally put together about $20 million and asked Tesla's existing investors—since no new investors materialized—to match that figure. The investors agreed, and on Dec. 3, 2008, they were in the process of finalizing the paperwork for the funding round when Musk noticed a problem. VantagePoint Capital Partners had signed all of the paperwork except for one crucial page. Musk phoned Alan Salzman, VantagePoint's co-founder and managing partner, to ask about the situation. Salzman told Musk that the firm had a problem with the investment round because it undervalued Tesla.

Salzman asked Musk to come in the following week at 7 a.m. to present to VantagePoint's top brass and explain the deal. Not having a week of time to work with, Musk demanded to come in the next day, and Salzman refused, forcing Musk to continue taking on loans. "The only reason he wanted the meeting at his office was for me to come on bended knee begging for money so he could say, 'No,' " Musk theorized. "What a f---head."

VantagePoint declined to speak about this period, but Musk believed that Salzman's tactics were part of a mission to bankrupt Tesla. Musk feared that VantagePoint would oust him as CEO, recapitalize Tesla, and emerge as the major owner of the carmaker. It could then sell Tesla to a Detroit automaker or focus on selling electric drivetrains and battery packs instead of making cars.
In response, Musk took another huge risk. Tesla recharacterized the funding as a debt round, knowing that VantagePoint could not interfere with a debt deal. The tricky part of this strategy was that venture capital investors, such as Draper Fisher Jurvetson, are not structured to do debt deals. Persuading their backers to alter their rules of engagement for a company that could very well go bankrupt in a matter of days would be tough. So Musk bluffed. He told the investors that he would take another loan fr om SpaceX and fund the entire round—all $40 million—himself. The tactic worked: The investors handed over $20 million. "When you have scarcity, it naturally reinforces greed and leads to more interest," Steve Jurvetson said. "It was also easier for us to go back to our firms and say, 'Here is the deal. Go or no go?' "

In the meantime, at SpaceX, Musk and top executives had spent most of December in a state of fear, but on Dec. 23, 2008, SpaceX received a wonderful shock. The company won a $1.6 billion contract for 12 NASA resupply flights to the space station. Then the Tesla deal ended up closing successfully, on Christmas Eve, hours before Tesla would have gone bankrupt. Musk had just a few hundred thousand dollars left and could not have made payroll the next day.

Staying with Kimbal in Boulder, Colo., for the holidays, Musk broke down in tears as the SpaceX and Tesla transactions processed. "I hadn't had an opportunity to buy a Christmas present for Talulah or anything," he said. "I went running down the f---ing street in Boulder, and the only place that was open sold these s----- trinkets, and they were about to close. The best thing I could find were these plastic monkeys with coconuts—those 'see no evil, hear no evil' monkeys."

Antonio Gracias, a Tesla and SpaceX investor and one of Musk's closest friends, had watched all of this transpire; 2008 told him everything he would ever need to know about Musk's character. "He has the ability to work harder and endure more stress than anyone I've ever met," Gracias said. "What he went through in 2008 would have broken anyone else. Most people who are under that sort of pressure fray. Their decisions go bad. Elon gets hyperrational. He's still able to make very clear, long-term decisions. The harder it gets, the better he gets."

Today, the headquarters of SpaceX is on One Rocket Road in Hawthorne, a few miles fr om Los Angeles International Airport. It's 550,000 square feet and painted a blinding white. Near the back, enormous sheets of metal arrive and are transported to two-story-high welding machines, to be turned into rockets. Over to one side, technicians in white coats make motherboards, radios, and more electronics. Others are in a special, airtight glass chamber, building the capsules that dock with the International Space Station. Tattooed men in bandanas blast Van Halen and thread wires around rocket engines. There are fuselages lined up and ready to be placed on trucks; others await coats of white paint. Everywhere, there are bodies in motion around a variety of bizarre machines. It is difficult to take in the entire factory at once.

On the wall leading up to Musk's cubicle on the first floor of the SpaceX headquarters are two posters of Mars. The one on the left is Mars as it is today—a cold, barren red orb. The poster on the right shows a Mars with a cheery green landmass surrounded by oceans. The planet has been heated up and transformed to suit humans.

For all his swagger, Musk can be surprisingly shy and awkward in person. Like a lot of engineers, he will pause while searching for exact phrasing, and he'll often wander down a scientific rabbit hole without offering any lay translations along the way. He expects you to keep up; there's no small talk.

He can also be disarmingly sincere. "I would like to die thinking that humanity has a bright future," he says, while chatting at his cubicle and making his way through a cup of cookies-and-cream ice cream with sprinkles on top, just passed to him by an assistant. "If we can solve sustainable energy and be well on our way to becoming a multiplanetary species with a self-sustaining civilization on another planet—to cope with a worst-case scenario happening and extinguishing human consciousness— then I think that would be really good."



Musk at the opening of the Tesla showroom in Newport Beach, Calif., on July 1, 2010.
Photographer: J. Emilio Flores/The New York Times/Redux

His once-failing companies are thriving. SpaceX flew a supply capsule to the International Space Station, brought it safely back to earth, and soon plans to begin flying humans and building reusable rockets. Tesla Motors delivered the Model S, a beautiful, all-electric sedan that took the automotive industry's breath away. Musk is also the chairman and principal shareholder of SolarCity, which has become the largest installer of solar panels.

Most CEOs have handlers, but Musk usually moves about on his own, in his usual black T-shirt and designer jeans. During one interview in Los Angeles, Musk walks me out of the SpaceX facility, and we hop into his Model S sedan to zip over to the Tesla design studio, a couple of buildings away. We talk as he makes his way around the studio's main floor, inspecting prototype parts and vehicles. At each station, employees rush up and give him updates. He listens intently, processes, nods, and moves on. Tesla's design chief, Franz von Holzhausen, wants Musk's take on some new tires and rims for the Model S and seats for the Model X. He seems unmoved. He tells him he'll think about it and then walks toward the source of the loudest noise—a workshop deep in the design studio where Tesla engineers are building the scaffolding for the 30-foot decorative towers that go outside the company's charging stations. "That thing looks like it could survive a Category 5 hurricane," Musk says. "Let's thin it up a bit."

Currently, SpaceX sends up about one rocket a month, carrying satellites for companies and nations. The company can undercut its U.S. competitors—Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Orbital Sciences—on price by a wide margin. It also offers U.S. customers a peace of mind that its rivals can't. Where competitors rely on Russian and other foreign suppliers, SpaceX makes its machines from scratch in the U.S. Its $60 million per launch cost is much less than what Europe and Japan charge and trumps even the relative bargains offered by the Russians and Chinese, who have the added benefit of cheap labor and decades of government investment.
To date, SpaceX has flown satellites for Canadian, European, and Asian customers and completed about two dozen launches. Its launch manifest stretches out for a number of years, and SpaceX has more than 50 flights planned, which are all together worth more than $5 billion. The company remains privately owned, with Musk as the largest shareholder. SpaceX is profitable and is estimated to be worth $12 billion.

The Falcon 9 has gone from a fantasy to SpaceX's workhorse. It's 224.4 feet tall, 12 feet across, and weighs 1.1 million pounds. It's powered by nine engines arranged in an "octaweb" pattern, with a center engine surrounded by eight others. The engines power the first stage of the rocket, which bears the blue SpaceX insignia and an American flag. The shorter second stage is the one that does things in space. It can be outfitted with a rounded container for carrying satellites or a capsule capable of transporting humans. There's nothing particularly flashy-looking about the Falcon 9. It's an elegant, purposeful machine.

These days, SpaceX sometimes uses Vandenberg Air Force Base to send up Falcon 9s. Were it not owned by the military, the base would be a resort. The Pacific Ocean runs for miles along its border, and its grounds are wide open shrubby fields amid green hills. Nestled into one hilly spot just at the ocean's edge are a handful of launchpads. On launch days, the white Falcon 9 breaks up the blue and green landscape, pointing skyward and leaving no doubt about its intentions.


Source: SpaceX


On Sept. 29, 2013, about four hours before a launch, the Falcon 9's fueling process begins by filling the tanks with some 46,000 gallons of liquid oxygen and 29,600 gallons of rocket-grade kerosene. Some of the liquid oxygen vents out of the rocket and is so cold that it boils off on contact with the metal and air, forming white plumes that stream down the rocket's sides. This gives the impression of the Falcon 9 huffing and puffing as it limbers up before the journey. The engineers in SpaceX's mission control chatter on headsets and cycle through their launch checklist as they move from one approval to the next. Ten minutes before launch, the machines take over. Everything goes quiet, and the tension builds until, out of nowhere, the Falcon 9 breaks the silence with a loud gasp.

A latticed support structure pulls away from the fuselage. The T-minus-10-seconds countdown begins. At the count of three, the engines ignite, and the computers conduct a last health check. Four enormous metal clamps hold the rocket down, as computing systems ensure that the nine engines are producing sufficient downward force. At zero, the clamps release. The rocket goes to war with inertia, and then, with flames surrounding its base and snow-thick plumes of the liquid oxygen filling the air, it shoots up. Seeing something so large hold so straight and steady while suspended in midair is hard for the brain to process. It is foreign, inexplicable. About 20 seconds after liftoff, the spectators a few miles away hear and feel the Falcon 9's full rumble. It's a distinct sound—a sort of staccato crackling that makes pant legs vibrate. After about a minute, the rocket is a red spot in the sky, and then it's gone.

Elon Musk's Space Dream Almost Killed Tesla

[svmich]

Этот тезис предлагаю проигнорировать (или не воспринимать буквально):

No one on the planet knew more about the realities of getting things into space than Griffin...

[Чебурашка]

In late October 2001, Elon Musk went to Moscow to buy an intercontinental ballistic missile.

А где в Москве их можно достать? В Детском мире?  Я тоже себе хочу

[Alex_II]

Чебурашка пишет:
Я тоже себе хочу  

И непременно чтоб боеголовки на месте были...

[Sam Grey]

svmich пишет:
Elon Musk's Space Dream Almost Killed Tesla
 
                Изменено:                   svmich - 16.05.2015 04:24:11

несколько эпизодов из русской версии книги

[svmich]

Sam Grey пишет:

svmich пишет:
 Elon Musk's Space Dream Almost Killed Tesla
 
                Изменено:                   svmich - 16.05.2015 04:24:11

Переведенный на русский тескт статьи целиком

Нет. Посмотрите внимательней. Это перевод небольшого фрагмента, немного пересекающегося с тем, который я здесь привёл в 4 частях.

К слову, русский перевод книги (судя по этому отрывку) весьма вольный, не близкий к оригиналу -- несмотря на то, что книга всё же биографическая, а не художественная.

[Sam Grey]

svmich пишет:

Sam Grey пишет:

svmich пишет:
 Elon Musk's Space Dream Almost Killed Tesla
 
                Изменено:                   svmich - 16.05.2015 04:24:11

Переведенный на русский тескт статьи целиком

Нет. Посмотрите внимательней. Это перевод небольшого фрагмента, немного пересекающегося с тем, который я здесь привёл в 4 частях.

К слову, русский перевод книги (судя по этому отрывку) весьма вольный, не близкий к оригиналу -- несмотря на то, что книга всё же биографическая, а не художественная.

Пардон, вы правы. Я на прошлой неделе с удовольствием прочел ту статью в оригинале на сайте Блумберга, и еще подумал, мол, может перевести ее на выходных и выложить куда-нибудь? Но вскорости набрел на тот сайт с русским текстом, и вскользь глянув на " ... Я пришёл в ресторан и обосновался за столиком, зная по опыту, что Маск опоздает. Он появился через четверть часа: кожаные туфли, модные джинсы и клетчатая рубашка. Рост у него около 1,85 метра, но спросите кого-нибудь, кто его знает... ",  решил, что кто-то успел с переводом до меня. 

Если хотите, я сотру тот пост, чтобы людей с толку не сбивать. 

P.S. И про качество того перевода - да, согласен. Надеюсь, что книга будет переведена лучше. 

[svmich]

Дело ваше. Я бы поправил, что это не "переведённый на русский текст статьи целиком", а "несколько эпизодов из русской версии книги", как и написано в начале статьи.

И раз уж это взято прямо из русского перевода книги, то наводит на предположение о посредственном качестве перевода самой книги на русский.

[Sam Grey]

svmich пишет:
Дело ваше. Я бы поправил, что это не "переведённый на русский текст статьи целиком", а "несколько эпизодов из русской версии книги", как и написано в начале статьи.

И раз уж это взято прямо из русского перевода книги, то наводит на предположение о посредственном качестве перевода самой книги на русский.

Поправил.  
Да, насчет перевода, разделяю опасения. У меня небыстро шел перевод даже небольшой статьи про то, как Спейсы ставят свои доморощенные агрегаты вместо чужих, а тут надо было целую книгу перевести, которая, с одной стороны вроде как художественная, но с другой имеет много технических подробностей. И все это надо было сделать за короткий срок..  

[ilan]

Не нашел, упоминался ли здесь оригинал статьи:

The Making Of Tesla: Invention, Betrayal, And The Birth Of The Roadster
NOV. 11, 2014, 12:06 PM

http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-the-origin-story-2014-10

Но сейчас появился обширный перевод:

25 мая в 18:49
Неизвестная история Tesla

В трех частях:

http://geektimes.ru/post/250810/
http://geektimes.ru/post/251022/
http://geektimes.ru/post/251082/

Любопытно почитать.

[Александр Ч.]

С лайфхака Почему работа в Tesla подойдёт не всем:

Илон Маск — новый кумир интернета. Пожалуй, все слышали о том, что его образ стал вдохновением для создателей фильма «Железный человек», а Роберт Дауни младший, проведя с Маском целый день, сказал, что Tesla делает «охренительно крутые штуки».

И это действительно так. Недавно компания презентовала Tesla Power Wall — солнечную батарею для массового пользователя, которая, если повезёт, сделает Солнце основным источником энергии в будущем. Амбициозные цели подогревают интерес к Tesla, и нам стало любопытно, как о своей работе отзываются сотрудники компании?
Один из них, пожелав остаться анонимным, рассказал на сервисе Quora о друге, который работает в компании.

Его друг работает в Tesla инженером-механиком. По его мнению, особенность работы заключается в том, что решаемые тобою задачи ещё не решал никто другой. Фактически ты создаёшь первый подобный продукт. Это невероятно сложно, но награда пропорциональна усилиям.
У управленческого состава, инженеров и «голубых воротничков» десятичасовой рабочий день. Когда поджимают сроки, приходится работать больше, но иногда, когда график менее напряжённый, можно уйти домой раньше. В отличие от Маска, который не признаёт личную жизнь, управленческий состав в большинстве случаев более лоялен.

Анонимный сотрудник Tesla считает преимуществами этой работы возможность соприкасаться с новыми технологиями и иногда видеть Илона, проходящего по заводу. Что касается зарплаты, она немного меньше среднерыночной, но всё равно довольно велика.
Однако не всё так радужно. На сайте Indeed.com, который является американской площадкой по поиску работы, рейтинг Tesla составляет три звезды из пяти. Многие бывшие сотрудники жалуются на то, что с ними обращаются как с роботами. В то же время компания платит среднерыночные зарплаты, и мотивация работать отпадает.
Для некоторых же Tesla — это компания мечты. Маркетолог Серхио Очоа, к примеру, создал сайт Teslashouldhire.me, на котором описал, почему он хочет работать в компании. Сайт Серхио дошёл до рекрутеров Tesla, однако на тот момент они не нуждались в маркетологах.
В целом, если суммировать все отзывы о компании, можно сделать следующий вывод.

Работа в Tesla тяжела и не подходит тем, кто хочет найти баланс между личной жизнью и работой. Некоторые управленцы стараются показать сотрудникам, что они легко заменяемы и не важны. Это и стандартная заработная плата отбивают желание работать. Однако для многих мотивация делать что-то, что не делал никто другой, перевешивает недостатки. А опыт, получаемый в Tesla, они считают бесценным.

[supermen]

Детский сад на лямках. Маску явно с фантазией рекрутеров нанять

[SFN]

Анонимный сотрудник Tesla считает преимуществами этой работы возможность ... иногда видеть Илона, проходящего по заводу.

[Salo]

http://anti-shale.livejournal.com/36220.html
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/elon-musk-4-9-billion-crony-capitalist-mooch/

[Kap]

И чего? Если читать на английском, выяснится что субсидиями конкретно на СпейсИкс можно пренебречь - их там от силы 100 миллионов (включая 20 миллионов на строительство космодрома) при 5.5 миллиардах контрактов. Для различных "зеленых" стартапов, которыми являются Солар Сити и Тесла госдатирование и налоговые льготы - норма жизни.

Да, в 2013 у Теслы таки получила прибыль.

[supermen]

Kap пишет:
И чего? Если читать на английском, выяснится что субсидиями конкретно на СпейсИкс можно пренебречь - их там от силы 100 миллионов (включая 20 миллионов на строительство космодрома) при 5.5 миллиардах контрактов. Для различных "зеленых" стартапов, которыми являются Солар Сити и Тесла госдатирование и налоговые льготы - норма жизни.

Да, в 2013 у Теслы таки получила прибыль .

Дык на Спейс автор то и бочку особо не катит. Хотя не очень понятно зачем вообще повторять что альтернативная энергетика и электромобили в нынешней экономике убыточны. И так вроде ясно.

[Искандер]

Elon Musk wants 1 million Teslas on the road — soon

Через 2-3 года нефть обязательно подорожает до максимальных значений, иначе и быть не может.
К тому времени у Маска будет не только завод по производству электромобилей, но и мегазавод литиевых батарей.
Если Тесла переживет грядущий кризис 2016-17гг, она не только будет на коне, но задавит всех конкурентов (электромобили) тупо своей массовостью.

[supermen]

Ну чего сектанты, с почином вас?

[SFN]

Завтра найдут, что причина в недиагностируемом дефекте у строннего поставщика комплектующих

[Александр Ч.]

Кстати, Маск рассказал фактически о провале идеи с подменными батареями
http://www.businessinsider.com/teslas-battery-swapping-plan-isnt-working-out-2015-6

"We've invited all the Model S owners in the area to try it out, and of the first round of 200 invitations, only four or five people were interested," Musk said at the meeting. "Clearly it's not very popular."

После рассылки 200 приглашений только пятеро заинтересовались.